Sunday, March 15, 2020

Coronavirus and Company Planning

The coronovirus COVID-19 pandemic is stirring up memories of planning for a previous pandemic, SARS, in 2003. We started to get ready for having sick employees stay home, rather than 'tough it out' and come to work. We also planned to have healthy employees stay home because they'd been exposed to a sick family member; even though asymptomatic, they may have still have the respiratory disease and could infect others.

With all of this, we calculated our probability at a reduction of 40% capacity to supply our customers. There were not enough contingencies to cover that much loss. Our only 'schadenfreude' hope was that  our customers would also suffer a loss of capacity and therefore reduce our demand. It wasn't fun.

These days are worse. There are more COVID-19 cases than there were of SARS, which only had 8000+ cases but a nearly 10% death rate.

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